USC 22 - Kentucky 26: Thoughts on Loss #1

A Tale of Two Halves or: Too Little Too Late

Given the strength of schedule this year, a win against Kentucky could have been considered a must if the Gamecocks were going to have a successful season and tally more wins than the 2014 squad. Despite this year's Kentucky being unarguably more talented than average, Kentucky is just not a team that South Carolina is supposed to take a loss against: South Carolina owns a 13-2 record between 2000-2014, and 7 of those were against the best teams Kentucky had seen in decades led by Rich Brooks. Having now lost 2 in a row is extremely depressing, and does not bode well for the rest of the season or the immediate future of the program.

You can point your finger at several plays in the 2nd Half and lay the blame of the defeat there: attempting 3 straight passes after 1st and 10 from the 11, Alan Knott's personal foul after Carson runs the ball to the 2 yard line, Orth's interception in the final offensive series, failing (in a major way) on the 2-point conversion after Jerell's TD. The truth, however, is that the game was lost when we gave up 327 yards and 24 points in the 1st Half. After giving up an interception on their first series, Kentucky scored points on every remaining possession in the half. Given the state of our offense and lack of playmakers on that side of the ball, we cannot expect to be able to carry a 24-7 deficit into the locker room at halftime and come out with a victory. The fact that we were even able to make it close is astounding in its own right.

The defense is a complete enigma so far in 2015. They've given up 38 points and gobs of yards in 4 quarters in 1st Halves, and then completely shut teams out in 4 quarters of 2nd Halves. The performance last week is particularly mystifying: 4 three-and-outs followed by a four-and-out, 9 yards of offense on their first 4 possessions, and only 72 total yards in the 2nd Half. This is tremendous performance against any level of opponent. If the defense had been able to play at just 70% of this level in the 2nd Quarter, the Gamecocks likely get the win.

This review has been almost entirely negative so far (losing to Kentucky at home, giving them their first road victory since 2009, won't generate many highlights), but it is important to note that there were some good aspects of the game. Aside from the dominant performance by the defense in the 2nd Half, I think you can say that overall Perry Orth's performance in his first significant action was a pleasant surprise: 13 of 20 for 179 yards and a TD (and 1 INT), making him the best QB on the field. Brandon Wilds had his first 100 yard game of the season, Pharoh Cooper had 9 receptions for 100 yards, Skai Moore got his 3rd pick of the year (currently leading the SEC in that category), and true freshman Quandeski "Boosie" Whitlow looked really good pressuring the QB.

In my preseason preview, I predicted the Gamecocks would get 8 wins in 2015. After the loss to Kentucky, and considering performance in the first 2 games, 4 wins (1-7 in the SEC) is looking more likely. South Carolina is going to have to play much better from here on out just to just get bowl eligible.

Bill Connelly from Football Study Hall has a great detailed breakdown of the game here, and you can watch the full Kentucky game below, if you must:

Watch the full South Carolina Vs Kentucky here Show your support by signing up for a free draftkings account with http://fullcollegefootball.com/recommends/draftkings/ Never want to miss another upload?

Week 2: Kentucky

Last year in Lexington the Gamecocks had their first of three 4th Quarter meltdowns, relinquishing a 14-point lead in a matter of minutes to lose 45-38. Dylan Thompson gave up 3 interceptions, one a pick-6, and Jo Jo Kemp torched our defense for 134 yards rushing (mostly from the Wildcat) and 3 TDs. Losing to Kentucky is never good, but losing in that manner was almost too much to bear.

This year USC looks to be much improved on defense, while Kentucky lost two key pieces to last year's unit to the NFL in Bud Dupree and Za'Darius Smith, and will be missing two starters at LB for this game. Kentucky gave up 479 yards of offense to Louisiana-Lafayette last week in a 40-33 win, and 247 of those yards were of the rushing variety. Advantage: South Carolina.

On offense, Kentucky has veteran Patrick Towles back at QB, as well as the above mentioned Jo Jo Kemp at RB. New Offensive Coordinator Shannon Dawson brings a HUNH, Air Raid-style offense from West Virginia, and with Towles and some adequate playmakers at the skill positions, Kentucky can be dangerous on offense. Advantage: Kentucky.

Overall, I think USC's advantage on defense outweighs the one Kentucky has on offense. I expect the South Carolina passing game to continue to struggle, but we should be able to find success in the run game and use that to control the time of possession. Brandon Wilds will get his first 100 yard game of the  season, and the defense will add 3 sacks to their 2015 total. Prediction: USC 28 - UK 21

Bonus: Watch Kentucky back-up QB and former USC priority recruit Drew Barker get totally destroyed by a sucker punch at an EKU dormitory following several months of off-the-field shenanigans. Enjoy.

Jan. 25, 2015 EKU Telford Hall security camera footage of Drew Barker knocked down in EKU's Tilford Hall by Patrick Graffree.

USC 17 - UNC 14: Thoughts on Win #1

A Win is a Win, but this was Ugly

Todd Ellis and Coach Steve Spurrier review highlights from Thursday night's win over the Tar Heels in Chalotte. Watch "The Steve Spurrier Show" Sundays at 11:30 a.m. ET on SportSouth

The best takeaway from the win against UNC in Charlotte is that John Hoke seems to have the defense playing at a much higher level than they were last year. Holding a 2014 Top 25 offensive team with 10 returning starters to only 14 points is good showing on defensive, and even more so given the historically bad performance we saw in '14. Apart from the 3 interceptions, the biggest number that stood out was 4 sacks, which is 29% of last year's total. Considering that the UNC O-line features an All-American and is one of the best we'll likely face all season, getting 4 sacks is incredibly encouraging. After a shaky start that featured a lot of poor tackling, the defense settled down and didn't allow a single point in the 2nd Half. Isaiah Johnson in particular showed a lot of improvement as the game went on, and had a great hit resulting in a pass break-up on 3rd and 15 in the 3rd Quarter. UNC ran a lot of HUNH during the game, and Joe Connolly seems to have done a great job during the off season, as there was almost no substitution in the back seven during the game. I'm not going to make any bold proclamations after only one game, but it appears that the defense may no longer be a liability.

On 3rd and 15, Isaiah Johnson lays the wood on Bug Howard to break up the pass play. Todd Ellis and Tommy Suggs on the call. Video from ESPN Audio from 107.5 The Game

The offense was an entirely different story. After getting off to an inauspicious start with a delay of game penalty prior to the first snap, Connor Mitch was incomplete on his first 5 attempts. I don't think anybody expected Mitch to come out and throw for 300 yards and multiple TDs in his first significant action, but what we saw in the 1st Quarter was definitely flirting with worst case territory. Keep in mind that there were several drops throughout the game, but even if those were completed Mitch's stat line would still have been fairly pedestrian. He got better as the game went on and I think he surprised everyone with his athleticism running the zone read (44 yards on 10 carries). Considering the 3 picks thrown by his counterpart, Mitch was easily the best QB on the field in Week 1. He also showed some toughness, struggling with cramps in his leg and thumb, and then coming back after suffering a hip pointer in the 2nd Half. I expect Mitch to show some improvement in Week 2 as the Gamecocks play in Williams-Brice for the home opener.

In my opinion the WRs were the most disappointing unit in the first game. They struggled to get open all game against one of the worst secondaries they're likely to face this year. Next to the QB position, WRs are the least experienced group on the team, so expectations need to be adjusted accordingly, but someone needs to step up and take some some of the burden off of Pharoh Cooper. Terry Googer made the most of his opportunities before leaving with an injury, and Carlton Heard and a great block on Shon Carson's long TD run, but as a whole this group really lacks playmakers at the moment. Look for true Freshman Dexter Neal and Jalen Christian to get some opportunities in the near future.

O-line was the lone bright spot on offense. The UNC D-line is probably one of the worst we'll face this year, but with 254 yards rushing and only 1 sack given up, the battle on the line of scrimmage was definitively won by South Carolina. There are concerns with depth given the recent injury to Cody Waldrop, but if the starting five stay healthy the rushing attack should be fairly potent and Mitch will be given the opportunity to improve.

Teriyaki Chicken Wings

After every win I'm going to hand out a dozen teriyaki chicken wings to the players with the biggest contributions. Here are the recipients for the first win:

Skai Moore - 3 Wings

Led the team in tackles with 10 (4 solo) and had 2 massive interceptions in the end zone, the final one basically turning a loss into a win. Sometimes I think Matt Rolin decommitting in the Fall of 2012 was one of the best things that has happened to this program this decade. Without Skai Moore we don't win this game.

Shon Carson - 2 Wings

His 48 yard TD run early in the 4th was the most explosive offensive play of the game and was his first touch of the day.

Kelsey Griffin - 2 Wings

Had 1.5 sacks in only 12 snaps as the 3rd guy off the bench at the 3-technique.

Sean Kelly - 2 Wings

Had a 46.2 yard punting average and a long of 60, which is the best punting performance we have seen in quite a while. Also audibled the fake punt in the 1st quarter and then successfully converted, giving a bit of a spark to a struggling offense. Finished up his stellar special teams performance by making the tackle on missed field goal at the end of the 1st half, likely preventing a return for a TD by Switzer.

Jordan Diggs - 1 Wing

You get a pick, you get a wing. His pick ended a promising drive for UNC (4 plays for 59 yards) as they were headed into the red zone. Diggs recognized the play from earlier in the game, faked as if he was covering the slant route, and then jumped in front of the pass in the flat.

Brandon Wilds - 1 Wing

2nd on the team in both rushing and receiving yards, with 95 yards total offense. His runs for first downs in the final series allowed USC to end the game from the victory formation.

Pharoh Cooper - 1 Wing

Cooper gets a wing for scoring the first TD of the year on Mitch's first completion past the line of scrimmage.

That's all I've got for the first game. It was great to get the win, no matter how ugly, but the Gamecocks will need to get better fast as they begin SEC play.

Watch the full UNC game here:

Uploaded by ncaa sportsvids on 2015-09-04.

Week 1: North Carolina

I wanted to do a more detailed preview of our first game of the 2015 season against the North Carolina Tar Heels, but I work for a living and wasn't able to find the time before the Friday morning kick-off.

It's actually pretty crazy how similar to this team South Carolina is: both coming off of 6-6 regular seasons, both were really strong on offense (Bill Connelly's S&P+ rankings have UNC offense at 25, USC at 21), and really bad on defense (UNC at 99, USC at 71). Another similarity is that we were both really bad on defense while running a 4-2-5 base (nickel). What can I say about the UNC 2014 defense that has not already been said about the French army? As bad as all Gamecock fans feel our defense was last year, UNC's was so much worse. They gave up 300+ rushing yards to their final four opponents. Both teams have hired new defensive coordinators (Gene Chizik for UNC, with UNC adding other staff as well, including John Papuchis (former DC at Nebraska), and both teams are moving to a more traditional 4-3 base, but North Carolina does not appear to have upgraded the talent on the defensive side of the ball as South Carolina did with Lewis, Sawyer, and Johnson. South Carolina should have the advantage on defense.

On offense I have to give the advantage to UNC. They return 10 starters and one of the best dual-threat QBs in the country. Marquise Williams doesn't have a great arm, but is big (6'2", 225lbs), good with his legs (788 yards rushing on 193 carries in 2014), and accurate enough for North Carolina's quick-pass offense (63.1% completion rate for 3,068 yards in 2014). South Carolina native Quinshad Davis headlines a skill position group that includes the NCAA record holder for single-season punt return TDs (Ryan Switzer) and former 5-star RB Elijah Hood. Their O-line also is experienced and highly regarded, including All-American Landon Turner at RG and former Gamecock high-priority recruit Bently Spain at LT. UNC is going to score points.

I think this will be a close game against two evenly matched teams, but I think the Gamecocks win the battle on the line of scrimmage, mainly our O-line having their way with the UNC D-line, and leave Charlotte with the win. South Carolina will have more than double the UNC rushing total. Prediction: USC 35 - UNC 27

Bonus prediction: USC's first play from scrimmage will be Wilds with an off-tackle run. Second play will be a deep post to Cooper from the slot.

The No. 6/7 Carolina Gamecocks defeated North Carolina 27-10 to open up the 2013 college football season. Full game recap including stats and post-game press conference videos here: http://www.gamecocksonline.com/sports/m-footbl/recaps/083013aab.html ***Video by Gamecock Productions, South Carolina Athletics. All rights reserved. If you like it, great!

Football is Hard: All-time Records for Southeastern Teams

During the dark days known as college football off-season I got interested in looking into the all-time records of the 'major' programs of the Southeast. Most of impetus to do this was derived from sheer boredom, but some of it was from a certain amount of noise coming out of a small agricultural school in Pickens County. Now I don't think you'll hear any Carolina fan making an argument for historical dominance. If I'm not mistaken USC was 1 game below .500 prior to Spurrier's arrival, which is about as good of a definition of mediocrity as you're going to get. As for Clemson, well they have many, many wonderful traditions: getting on a bus, rubbing a (chipped) doorstop of dubious origin, running down a grassy knoll surrounded by grown men wearing safety orange and purple. These are all very wonderful, but is winning a tradition that Clemson can lay claim to? Let's take a look.

So here's the list of 22 major teams in the Southeast and their historical records. First thing I notice when looking at this is all the teams ranked #8 and above would be considered 'good' teams, i.e. I assume these teams are always going to have a winning record. Teams below that I would consider mediocre or worse. Interestingly, only 3 teams have won more than two-thirds of their games. Football appears to be difficult. Also of note, Vanderbilt is only 6 games from a .500 record. Given the state of Vanderbilt football during my lifetime, they must certainly have been fairly tough during the first 50 years of the 20th century.

Now, here's South Carolina's and Clemson's winning % vs the teams on this list. Both USC and Clemson have losing records against the top 8 teams. Overall, South Carolina has winning records against 7 of the 20 teams, while Clemson has a winning record against 6. It is important to note that Clemson has met 6 teams fewer than 10 times (they've only met West Virginia twice, but I think WVU definitely has the advantage in points). So anyway, Clemson has a losing record again 70% of the major teams in the Southeast. Clemson of course has a winning record against South Carolina, having won 66 times in 112 meetings, or a little over 6 out of every 10. What is evident is that neither team can lay claim to a great winning tradition, especially in the within the region, and that both teams have a lot of work to do over the next few decades if they want to move up on the all-time lists.

Check out Winsipedia for more on historical football records.

2015 Prediction: Brandon Wilds for 1,000 yards

Brandon Wilds is feeling pretty confident heading into the 2015 season. Just check out this interview from the 2nd scrimmage of camp:

South Carolina tailback Brandon Wilds spoke to the media following the Gamecocks' scrimmage on Saturday.

As a low 3-star Fullback prospect in the class of 2011, Wilds began his true Freshman season as an afterthought buried on the depth chart. With injuries to Kenny Miles and Shon Carson, however, he began to get a few carries each game, and after Marcus Lattimore went down with his first knee injury at Mississippi State Wilds found himself alone at the top of the depth chart. In his first start at Tennessee he carried the ball 28 times for 137 yards and added another 31 yards on 3 receptions. He added 2 more 100 yard games over the next 3 contests, and ended the season with the 3rd most carries on the team. It's safe to say that Wilds had far exceeded expectations and was a critical piece of South Carolina's first ever 11-win season.

After battling injuries for the entirety of the 2012 season and part of 2013, Wilds spent last season backing up Mike Davis and getting about 22% of total carries (vs 42% for Davis). Now that Davis has moved on to the NFL, Wilds enters his final season as the clear #1 at running back.

South Carolina maintained a very balanced Offense last year (49.5% Pass, 50.5% Run). Given the relative inexperience at QB and WR in 2015, it's safe to assume that this balance will at least be maintained, and more likely will skew more toward the running game. If Wilds stays healthy, he should see at least as many carries as Mike Davis did last year from his position as the featured back. In terms of yards per carry Wilds has consistently improved his numbers every season in which he has played, from 4.5 yards / carry in 2011 to 5.4 in 2014. Assuming that his 2015 average doesn't fall below his career average of 5.0 yards / carry and won't be significantly higher than his 2014 average, Wilds can be expected to accumulate between 993 - 1,070 yards on ground with 8 TDs.

Here's some Brandon Wilds highlights from 2014:

Music: William Davies / Edward Nutbrown / Charles Nutbrown - "Up in Flames" Thanks to SFCocking for the source clips! https://www.youtube.com/user/SFCocking COPYRIGHT DISCLAIMER Under Section 107 of the Copyright Act 1976, allowance is made for "fair use" for purposes such as criticism, comment, news reporting, teaching, scholarship, and research.

2015 Season Preview

The 2014 Gamecocks entered the season with an unprecedented amount of hype. Consensus preseason #9 ranking (with one 1st place vote in the Coach's Poll), overwhelming media pick to win the SEC East, dark horse contender for the inaugural College Football Playoff, etc. I must say that in all my years as a South Carolina fan, this was definitely the apex of my excitement for the program. As everyone can guess, my excitement was not able to make it out of the 1st Quarter of the 1st game intact. We were thoroughly dismantled by what turned out to be a somewhat average Texas A&M team, vaulting a young QB (who was benched halfway through the season) to the top of the Heisman race in the process. It was quickly apparent as the clock wound down that Friday morning that we were in for a long season. Will the defense be improved in 2015? Will we be able to replace the single-season school record holder for passing yards? Here's some thoughts on this year's Gamecocks:

DEFENSE

This is obvious, but the biggest factor that will determine whether the season is successful or not is our play at DE. We were consistently nasty on D from 2009 through 2013, and a major part of that wasn't only a once-in-a-generation talent like Clowney, but also elite DEs like Cliff Matthews, Melvin Ingram, Devin Taylor, and Chaz Sutton (maybe not quite elite, but pretty solid). It's actually crazy to think how successful we've been in recruiting and developing prototypical 4-3 DEs, which are some of the rarest type of athletes. The difficulty in finding 6'5", 250lbs+ guys that can move is a big reason why so many teams use the 3-4, and USC has to be one of the most consistent teams putting these type of guys on the field in the past decade (even though some of these guys end up playing 3-4 OLB in the pros (Clowney, Ingram). We had nobody anywhere near this level last year. Our roster pretty much consisted of a bunch of undersized converted linebackers or big guys without any athleticism. Much has been said about the impact of Marquavius Lewis at the position. He is without a doubt a huge upgrade. One guy isn't going to turn things around though, but we did add a lot of other guys that I think will have an impact by the end of the season. I think we'll see Dante Sawyer starting starting early at the 3-technique, and I think we can expect to see him play some DE opposite of Lewis in certain packages. After time in JUCO both of those guys are physically ready to play. The future looks bright as well considering the other 2 guys we recruited at the position: Shameik Blackshear and Quandeski Whitlow. At one time Blackshear was rated the #1/#2 SDE prospect before his knee injury as senior. Whitlow is a high upside guy: lightly recruited early but then a lot of teams pushed hard for his services in the final months of recruiting season. Last year we had a total of zero pressure on the quarterback and no ability whatsoever to set the edge outside (excruciatingly evident in the Clemson game), and I truly think this will change due to the influx of new talent. That alone will make our D much better than it was last year.

I really like what I'm hearing about our new scheme on D. Moving to a true 4-3 is going to let us get more talent from our best position group (LB) on the field. Supposedly we'll be running a lot of Tampa 2 coverage, and I can't think of a more ideal Tampa 2 MLB than Skai Moore. This coverage requires a MLB to be able to take a deep drop to cover the middle of the field on passes (essentially resulting in a cover 3) and the WLB to be badass tackler on the run. Moore and Walton are going to be great in this defense. I've also got a really good feeling about Larenz Bryant at SAM this year. As for back-ups Bryson Allen-Williams will be great filling in at WILL and possibly SAM. Both Moore and Walton should have a chance to end up on All-SEC teams.

As another part of our new scheme, I absolutely love the moves we've made in the secondary. Next to DE, our safety play was the most atrocious part of the 2014 defense. We've made the SPUR into a true nickel position and moved TJ Gurley and Jasper Sasser here. We've moved Diggs to SS, and with DJ Smith backing-up here we'll finally be getting back to having a hard hitting box safety that we haven't had since the days of Darian Stewart / DJ Swearinger. Transfer Isaiah Johnson was one of the best defensive players in the Big 12 and will be a starter from day one at free. I think our corners will play a lot better this year given the experience gained last season and better pressure on the QB from our DL. Chris Lammons could end-up on some All-SEC teams.

OFFENSE

On the offensive side of the ball, who the hell knows how we'll end-up at QB? Connor Mitch definitely looks the part: big, tall, blue-eyed, and pretty. He's also probably one of the most highly-regarded recruits we've ever brought in at the position. But considering that bro only has 6 pass attempts (and only completed 2 of those), there's not much evidence for optimism. This has the potential to get ugly......

At RB, we seem to be pretty solid. Brandon Wilds has proven himself to be very dependable over the past 4-years, and has showed some flashes of being very good at the position (Georgia last year comes to mind). David Williams is my pick for the break-out player of the year. Dude is big (around 215-220) and FAST (with Byrd graduated, he and Shon Carson are likely two fastest guys on the team). If we get ourselves into a situation like 2011 though (5th string true-freshman RB (Wilds) starting at the end of the season due to injuries), I'm not sure we have the necessary depth to be competitive here (although I probably would have said the same thing in 2011 as well).

Receiver......not sure how to feel about this group. Pharoh Cooper is of course a baller, but he's also 1 of 2 receivers that has every recorded a reception (Shamier Jeffrey with 8 receptions in what feels like 10 years being the other one). Despite this, this group appears to have a ton of potential. Everything I've heard about Deebo Samuel makes me think he is legit. Terry Googer is the first big receiver we've had since the days of Tori Gurley and Alshon Jeffrey (dude is 6'4", 225lbs) and I think that's something we've really been missing the past two years. DJ Neal made a lot of noise in pre-season camp coming in as a true Freshman, and KC Crosby will be a versatile option for several different roles. None of this potential at WR will mean anything though if QB play isn't up to snuff.

I feel OK about O-line. I think we'll perform similarly to how we have the past few years. We probably don't have the raw talent we had last year (losing Cann and Robinson hurts), but given how we seem to consistently underachieve here I don't think we'll see a big drop off. We won't be great, but we should be serviceable here.

SCHEDULE

Our schedule absolutely sucks. We travel to Georgia, Missouri, A&M, and Tennessee. Screw Eric Hyman for getting us paired with A&M. They're supposedly going to finish last in the West this year, but this is just not a team I think we match-up well against. I think if we win one of these games we'll consider our away performance a success this year. And why are we playing UCF?! This is another one for which we have Eric Hyman to thank. They're not going to be anywhere near as good as they have been the past few years, but they are still one of the toughest mid-major programs to face. That Missouri game might get a bit chippy, and Maty Mauk could get a messed up in this one, as he isn't all that good but is apparently a big talker.

Here's my predictions for the season:

North Carolina - W
Kentucky - W
at Georgia - L
UCF - W
at Missouri - W
LSU - L
Vanderbilt - W
at Texas A&M - L
at Tennessee - L
Florida - W
Citadel - W
Clemson - W

So I'm calling an 8-4 regular season. Considering the schedule I know this is optimistic, but I'm a Gamecock homer, and I can't force myself to be realistic here. 7-5 is obviously a more realistic prediction. I think we'll end up winning one that we shouldn't (Georgia / LSU) and losing to some crap team like Kentucky (again). I've got us losing to Tennessee at the moment, but given that this game is fairly late in the season and Tennessee's current injury issues, they could end up with a lack of depth that could turn the game to our favor. I actually feel pretty good about that Clemson prediction. They are in full-blown rebuild mode this year, especially considering the recent departures on defense during camp.

We'll find out soon whether the Gamecocks are going to take a step forward this year when they meet North Carolina in Charlotte on September 3rd. Go Cocks.